Full-time result value
Compare home, draw and away probabilities with available prices.
Strategy hypothesis
Picking the likely winner is not enough. A selection has value only when its estimated chance exceeds the chance implied by the obtainable price by enough to absorb uncertainty.
Up to five selections per market
Both sides and available lines compete for each place. Every displayed selection has recorded odds and a tracked outcome.
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How it works
- Evaluate all three mutually exclusive outcomes.
- Remove bookmaker margin before comparing market probabilities.
- Use a real timestamped price, not a later or best-case quote.
When the idea may be useful
- The full probability vector is available.
- Several bookmakers confirm the price.
- The model-market disagreement survives conservative assumptions.
Where it can fail
- The favourite can be likely and still be a poor price.
- Draw probabilities are easy to understate.
- Small edges disappear through margin and model error.
Settlement
Home, draw or away after regulation time. Extra time and penalties do not count.
Worked example
A 50% estimate has fair odds of 2.00. A quote of 1.75 is not value merely because the team is likely to win.
Price check
Break-even probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. At 2.20 it is 45.5%, before accounting for uncertainty.
Current lab evidence
This counter shows validation activity for this exact strategy version. Current portfolio selections and every settled outcome are available in Results. The private lab is a separate research cohort.
What this page is—and is not
This page explains a market hypothesis and may show current research candidates. A selection is not a promise of profit, personalized advice or proof that the strategy works.