Half-time / full-time
Combine the result at half-time with the result after 90 minutes.
Strategy hypothesis
Nine outcome combinations offer precise match-path views and larger odds, but accurate joint probabilities are much harder than two separate predictions.
Up to five selections per market
Both sides and available lines compete for each place. Every displayed selection has recorded odds and a tracked outcome.
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How it works
- Choose one half-time and one full-time outcome.
- Both legs must be correct.
- The outcomes are dependent and must be modelled jointly.
When the idea may be useful
- A model supplies a complete joint distribution.
- Game-state transitions are explicitly represented.
- The price remains attractive after conservative uncertainty.
Where it can fail
- Large odds are not evidence of value.
- Multiplying separate HT and FT probabilities is usually wrong.
- Sparse outcomes invite severe overfitting.
Settlement
Both the official half-time result and regulation-time full-time result must match the selection.
Worked example
Draw/Home wins only if the match is level at half-time and the home team wins after 90 minutes.
Price check
At 6.00, break-even is 16.7%, but that probability must describe the exact joint path.
Current lab evidence
This counter shows validation activity for this exact strategy version. Current portfolio selections and every settled outcome are available in Results. The private lab is a separate research cohort.
What this page is—and is not
This page explains a market hypothesis and may show current research candidates. A selection is not a promise of profit, personalized advice or proof that the strategy works.